In what can only be described as a “duh!” article, Billboard is reporting that many expect the second half of 2008 tour revenues to be lower. Quoting Rob Light, CAA’s master of music:
“The first half of the year was great, but I think 90% of those tours were up on sale before April, certainly before May when gas really kicked in and the housing crunch started to happen,” Light continued. “I think shows that will go up in August and September are going to be a little more hard hit and not come out of the box quite the same.”
This isn’t a huge surprise in the world of $4 gas and general economic malaise. But it does bring up an important point which is that since artists have become so heavily dependent on touring revenue in the past five years as record sales have shrunk like a frightened turtle, what will they do when the revenue drops?
The top ten acts won’t accept shows that don’t sell out. That means that the added nights — those dates reserved for sale but not announced until the inital dates sell out — won’t get added. Those are the most profitable nights too. Adding that second or third night in NYC or LA or Miami is gravy as travel, load, and stage are already taken care of.
So the top ten tours will still have pretty much sold out tours, they’ll just have 15% fewer dates. The next tier down of artists, call it 10-20, will see a slip in ticket revenue even more substantial than that. And this is their bread and butter. Sponsors won’t pony up the same dollars, AEG and Live Nation won’t guarantee the same dollars, and 85% of the fans won’t pay higher ticket prices. It isn’t going to be pretty.
If artists can’t rely on record sales, if they can’t rely on touring, where’s the money?
